Ryanair has adjusted its passenger target for fiscal year 2027, reducing it from 216 million to 214 million, as the airline strategically cuts back on winter capacity to mitigate the impact of high unhedged jet-fuel costs. The current price of jet fuel stands at approximately $140 per barrel, and Ryanair has cautioned that if these elevated prices persist, they could lead to a significant increase in European short-haul airfares. In the face of these challenges, Ryanair anticipates that passenger traffic from November to March will remain relatively stable compared to the previous year, as the airline navigates through the typically slower winter travel season.
To shield itself from soaring fuel prices, Ryanair has hedged roughly 80% of its fuel needs for fiscal 2027, covering the period through March 2027, at an average price of about $67 per barrel. This strategic move provides the airline with substantial protection against the current high costs. In line with this approach, Ryanair expects that the reduction in winter capacity will help decrease its seasonal losses by between €70 million and €100 million. The airline has already made adjustments by removing five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and reducing its Brussels schedule by approximately two million seats for the winter of 2026 and the summer of 2027.
Ryanair has also highlighted that airlines with less robust fuel hedging strategies might experience increased financial pressure if high oil prices continue. Despite the more cautious outlook for the winter season, Ryanair remains optimistic about its summer performance, projecting a growth of over 5% in summer traffic. In August, the airline reported a 6% year-on-year increase in passenger numbers, reaching 22.2 million, while maintaining a load factor of 96%. During the same month, Ryanair conducted over 120,500 flights, with more than 400 cancellations due to volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna.
While Ryanair foresees its profit after tax for fiscal 2027 to fall short of the record levels achieved in the previous financial year, the airline has stated that it is currently too early to offer detailed profit guidance. The combination of strategic fuel hedging and capacity adjustments underscores Ryanair’s proactive approach to managing its operations amid challenging market conditions and fluctuating fuel prices.